Thursday, August 27, 2009

Where to Now ?

The DOW pulls off another comeback after being down 90 points and finishes up 37 even after a FDIC report stating over 400 banks in the US are sucking bigtime. But when you see how much room they have to borrow from the treasury department it looks like as bad as things appear,there will always be bailout money for personal cash accounts.

One point just mentioned on CNBC is that during the 1993 S&L Crisis, there was over 4000 banks in serious trouble and when all was said and done in the end there were over 1500 banks that bit the dust so this meauring stick is meaningful to keep in mind here as the doom and gloomers keep ratcheting up the "end of time/armegeddon" scenario.

The next question is where to now ? Do we correct next week or the week after Labor Day or do the big money players coming back HAVE to buy in or risk missing out any last gasp at a temporary top ?

It is a very reasonable possibility that we break 10,000 on the DOW then some profit taking later in the month. Greed rules and the pigs at the trough will always want theirs even if they missed most of the summer rally.

One area I am keeping a close eye on is gold. As you know I am no gold nut, but a TA guy, and something is going to happen here one way or the other with the US dollar. As I have always maintained, if it breaks $1000, I'll be in there like a dirty shirt as risk is clearly back in vogue and the right juniors and some good call options could make for a nice September.

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